Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ingenic Semiconductor Co.,Ltd. (300223.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.35 - $26.22$17.54
Multi-Stage$8.98 - $9.81$9.39
Blended Fair Value$13.46
Current Price$89.01
Upside-84.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS74.03%24.90%0.200.080.190.130.000.010.010.000.010.00
YoY Growth--150.00%-57.89%50.08%0.00%-100.00%78.71%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.28%0.13%0.21%0.14%0.00%0.01%0.02%0.00%0.03%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)317.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)269.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.5139.6923.81
Cash Retained (M)269.46269.46269.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.51-39.69-23.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)205.95229.77245.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)482.83482.83482.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.35$17.54$26.22
Upside / Downside-86.13%-80.30%-70.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)317.53338.16360.15383.55408.49435.04448.09
Payout Ratio15.14%30.11%45.08%60.06%75.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.07101.82162.36230.35306.48391.53414.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)91.7092.5793.44
Year 2 PV (M)131.69134.20136.73
Year 3 PV (M)168.26173.09178.01
Year 4 PV (M)201.62209.37217.35
Year 5 PV (M)231.97243.17254.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,510.813,680.383,856.45
Equity Value (M)4,336.054,532.784,736.78
Shares Outstanding (M)482.83482.83482.83
Fair Value$8.98$9.39$9.81
Upside / Downside-89.91%-89.45%-88.98%

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