Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Division Co.,Ltd. (300167.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.09 - $0.12$0.11
Multi-Stage$0.42 - $0.47$0.44
Blended Fair Value$0.28
Current Price$5.70
Upside-95.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-36.60%-17.86%0.010.000.010.040.030.050.060.130.050.04
YoY Growth--14.49%-60.52%-67.77%30.77%-46.21%-15.66%-49.90%174.07%25.21%-5.93%
Dividend Yield--0.14%0.24%0.21%0.61%0.70%1.07%1.02%1.53%0.32%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.701.691.01
Cash Retained (M)3.053.053.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.70-1.69-1.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.351.372.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)358.26358.26358.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate5.63%5.63%5.63%
Growth Rate-19.86%-18.86%-17.86%
Fair Value$0.09$0.11$0.12
Upside / Downside-98.34%-98.08%-97.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.5010.958.897.215.854.754.89
Payout Ratio77.39%79.91%82.43%84.96%87.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.458.757.336.135.124.274.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.63%5.63%5.63%
Growth Rate-19.86%-18.86%-17.86%
Year 1 PV (M)8.188.298.39
Year 2 PV (M)6.406.566.73
Year 3 PV (M)5.015.205.39
Year 4 PV (M)3.914.114.32
Year 5 PV (M)3.053.253.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)122.70130.55138.79
Equity Value (M)149.26157.95167.07
Shares Outstanding (M)358.26358.26358.26
Fair Value$0.42$0.44$0.47
Upside / Downside-92.69%-92.27%-91.82%

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