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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Xiuqiang Glasswork Co., Ltd. (300160.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.12 - $53.69$50.32
Multi-Stage$8.04 - $8.81$8.42
Blended Fair Value$29.37
Current Price$5.75
Upside410.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.44%17.56%0.100.110.090.010.170.020.200.060.040.02
YoY Growth---6.22%27.39%837.19%-94.73%617.32%-87.83%225.19%71.36%46.52%19.98%
Dividend Yield--1.88%2.12%1.13%0.12%2.62%0.36%4.51%0.91%0.29%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.7326.0815.65
Cash Retained (M)130.94130.94130.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.73-26.08-15.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.21104.86115.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)772.95772.95772.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.12$50.32$53.69
Upside / Downside319.49%775.05%833.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208.67222.24236.68252.07268.45285.90294.48
Payout Ratio37.25%47.80%58.35%68.90%79.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.73106.23138.10173.67213.28257.31272.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)98.8699.80100.73
Year 2 PV (M)119.61121.89124.19
Year 3 PV (M)139.98144.00148.09
Year 4 PV (M)159.98166.13172.46
Year 5 PV (M)179.62188.29197.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,520.025,786.646,063.47
Equity Value (M)6,218.076,506.756,806.24
Shares Outstanding (M)772.95772.95772.95
Fair Value$8.04$8.42$8.81
Upside / Downside39.91%46.40%53.14%

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