Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Riland Industry Group Co., Ltd (300154.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.95 - $46.41$43.50
Multi-Stage$7.01 - $7.65$7.32
Blended Fair Value$25.41
Current Price$8.45
Upside200.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.56%8.22%0.220.170.200.150.210.200.200.150.150.15
YoY Growth--31.23%-17.21%34.32%-27.47%2.11%0.12%35.79%0.00%-0.35%50.52%
Dividend Yield--1.98%2.71%3.11%2.16%3.98%3.82%2.90%2.39%1.62%1.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)94.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.8113.017.80
Cash Retained (M)9.649.649.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.81-13.01-7.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.17-3.371.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)445.87445.87445.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.95$43.50$46.41
Upside / Downside124.28%414.76%449.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.06110.82118.03125.70133.87142.57146.85
Payout Ratio90.73%90.59%90.44%90.29%90.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)94.42100.39106.74113.50120.68128.31135.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)93.3494.2395.11
Year 2 PV (M)92.2894.0495.82
Year 3 PV (M)91.2493.8596.52
Year 4 PV (M)90.2093.6797.23
Year 5 PV (M)89.1793.4897.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,667.122,795.942,929.69
Equity Value (M)3,123.353,265.213,412.33
Shares Outstanding (M)445.87445.87445.87
Fair Value$7.01$7.32$7.65
Upside / Downside-17.10%-13.33%-9.43%

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