Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Beijing Century Real Technology Co.,Ltd (300150.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.25 - $0.32$0.28
Multi-Stage$0.44 - $0.49$0.47
Blended Fair Value$0.38
Current Price$5.64
Upside-93.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-51.84%-29.67%0.000.000.030.000.100.100.110.060.090.09
YoY Growth---36.03%-86.94%955.40%-97.01%-1.64%-4.63%91.29%-37.34%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.06%0.12%0.76%0.06%2.67%2.07%1.98%1.11%1.09%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.625.393.23
Cash Retained (M)42.0542.0542.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.62-5.39-3.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.4436.6738.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)593.95593.95593.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-11.16%-10.16%-9.16%
Fair Value$0.25$0.28$0.32
Upside / Downside-95.65%-94.95%-94.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.0838.7134.7831.2528.0725.2225.98
Payout Ratio2.39%19.91%37.43%54.96%72.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.037.7113.0217.1720.3522.7024.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-11.16%-10.16%-9.16%
Year 1 PV (M)6.947.027.09
Year 2 PV (M)10.5510.7911.03
Year 3 PV (M)12.5212.9513.39
Year 4 PV (M)13.3613.9714.60
Year 5 PV (M)13.4214.1915.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)207.19219.11231.58
Equity Value (M)263.98278.03292.70
Shares Outstanding (M)593.95593.95593.95
Fair Value$0.44$0.47$0.49
Upside / Downside-92.12%-91.70%-91.26%

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