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By-health Co., Ltd. (300146.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.88 - $81.82$76.67
Multi-Stage$13.19 - $14.42$13.80
Blended Fair Value$45.24
Current Price$11.53
Upside292.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.61%16.54%0.900.180.710.660.340.440.300.230.260.22
YoY Growth--395.48%-74.28%7.55%94.26%-22.42%45.75%31.81%-12.49%20.00%10.95%
Dividend Yield--7.76%1.06%3.32%3.09%1.18%2.60%1.27%1.34%2.36%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)691.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)609.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)82.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)138.3186.4451.86
Cash Retained (M)82.0582.0582.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-138.31-86.44-51.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-56.25-4.3930.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,680.901,680.901,680.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.88$76.67$81.82
Upside / Downside271.92%565.00%609.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)691.53736.48784.35835.33889.62947.45975.87
Payout Ratio88.13%88.51%88.88%89.25%89.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)609.47651.84697.13745.56797.34852.71902.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)607.39613.15618.91
Year 2 PV (M)605.31616.84628.47
Year 3 PV (M)603.22620.53638.18
Year 4 PV (M)601.13624.24648.02
Year 5 PV (M)599.03627.96658.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,159.9620,085.3921,046.24
Equity Value (M)22,176.0323,188.1224,237.83
Shares Outstanding (M)1,680.901,680.901,680.90
Fair Value$13.19$13.80$14.42
Upside / Downside14.42%19.64%25.06%

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