Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nanfang Pump Industry Co., Ltd. Class A (300145.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.38 - $25.20$23.61
Multi-Stage$13.11 - $14.43$13.76
Blended Fair Value$18.68
Current Price$4.62
Upside304.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.93%11.73%0.050.060.070.080.100.070.100.070.040.02
YoY Growth---21.35%-9.11%-14.39%-18.16%39.46%-32.78%42.18%59.44%165.21%7.37%
Dividend Yield--1.23%1.93%2.52%2.81%3.12%2.05%2.35%0.96%0.46%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)250.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)203.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.1131.3218.79
Cash Retained (M)203.57203.57203.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.11-31.32-18.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)153.46172.25184.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,918.351,918.351,918.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate1.88%1.88%1.88%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Fair Value$21.38$23.61$25.20
Upside / Downside362.72%411.05%445.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)250.54258.82267.37276.20285.33294.75303.60
Payout Ratio18.75%33.00%47.25%61.50%75.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.9785.41126.33169.86216.13265.28280.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.88%1.88%1.88%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Year 1 PV (M)83.0283.8384.64
Year 2 PV (M)119.36121.70124.07
Year 3 PV (M)156.00160.62165.33
Year 4 PV (M)192.94200.60208.48
Year 5 PV (M)230.19241.66253.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,367.6925,582.1526,844.55
Equity Value (M)25,149.1926,390.5527,680.65
Shares Outstanding (M)1,918.351,918.351,918.35
Fair Value$13.11$13.76$14.43
Upside / Downside183.76%197.77%212.32%

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