Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jinlihua Electric Co., Ltd. (300069.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.16 - $3.49$2.76
Multi-Stage$3.04 - $3.34$3.19
Blended Fair Value$2.97
Current Price$19.08
Upside-84.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.92%-12.14%0.020.020.040.050.050.060.060.070.090.08
YoY Growth--26.06%-51.80%-14.80%-3.30%-10.95%-5.26%-13.16%-25.05%7.51%-7.23%
Dividend Yield--0.15%0.17%0.29%0.25%0.38%0.38%0.46%0.24%0.24%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.642.901.74
Cash Retained (M)19.5119.5119.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.64-2.90-1.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.8716.6117.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.22117.22117.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Fair Value$2.16$2.76$3.49
Upside / Downside-88.67%-85.53%-81.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.2223.6324.0524.4724.9025.3426.10
Payout Ratio15.98%30.79%45.59%60.39%75.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.717.2810.9614.7818.7322.8124.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Year 1 PV (M)6.666.736.79
Year 2 PV (M)9.199.379.56
Year 3 PV (M)11.3411.6812.03
Year 4 PV (M)13.1613.6914.23
Year 5 PV (M)14.6715.4116.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)301.49316.75332.62
Equity Value (M)356.51373.64391.43
Shares Outstanding (M)117.22117.22117.22
Fair Value$3.04$3.19$3.34
Upside / Downside-84.06%-83.29%-82.50%

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