Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. (300003.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.58 - $15.37$8.63
Multi-Stage$4.04 - $4.40$4.21
Blended Fair Value$6.42
Current Price$17.52
Upside-63.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.16%25.02%0.540.420.340.320.320.350.260.150.120.08
YoY Growth--28.91%20.93%8.28%-1.90%-6.38%33.96%69.39%29.45%55.36%31.84%
Dividend Yield--4.71%2.91%1.49%1.58%1.11%0.96%0.92%0.45%0.68%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)426.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)353.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.2753.2931.98
Cash Retained (M)72.4072.4072.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.27-53.29-31.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)-12.8719.1040.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,844.071,844.071,844.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.58$8.63$15.37
Upside / Downside-68.14%-50.72%-12.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)426.33454.05483.56514.99548.47584.12601.64
Payout Ratio83.02%84.42%85.81%87.21%88.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)353.94383.28414.95449.11485.96525.70556.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)348.35351.65354.95
Year 2 PV (M)342.76349.29355.88
Year 3 PV (M)337.16346.84356.70
Year 4 PV (M)331.58344.33357.44
Year 5 PV (M)326.00341.75358.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,756.356,034.386,323.06
Equity Value (M)7,442.207,768.248,106.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,844.071,844.071,844.07
Fair Value$4.04$4.21$4.40
Upside / Downside-76.96%-75.96%-74.91%

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