Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cahya Mata Sarawak Berhad (2852.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.49 - $0.66$0.58
Multi-Stage$1.56 - $1.73$1.65
Blended Fair Value$1.11
Current Price$1.26
Upside-11.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.00%-9.30%0.020.030.020.020.030.070.080.060.030.08
YoY Growth---33.33%50.00%0.00%-33.24%-59.46%-7.65%26.98%110.00%-64.56%59.49%
Dividend Yield--2.18%2.97%1.75%1.83%1.37%6.10%2.32%1.59%0.71%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.3913.998.39
Cash Retained (M)79.6979.6979.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.39-13.99-8.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.3065.7071.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,074.651,074.651,074.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-9.23%-8.23%-7.23%
Fair Value$0.49$0.58$0.66
Upside / Downside-61.38%-54.35%-47.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.93102.7294.2786.5279.4072.8775.06
Payout Ratio28.80%41.04%53.28%65.52%77.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.2442.1650.2356.6961.7465.5869.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-9.23%-8.23%-7.23%
Year 1 PV (M)39.2239.6640.09
Year 2 PV (M)43.4844.4445.41
Year 3 PV (M)45.6547.1748.73
Year 4 PV (M)46.2548.3350.47
Year 5 PV (M)45.7148.2850.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,459.121,541.281,627.10
Equity Value (M)1,679.431,769.161,862.78
Shares Outstanding (M)1,074.651,074.651,074.65
Fair Value$1.56$1.65$1.73
Upside / Downside24.03%30.66%37.57%

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