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Definitive Analysis

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My Humble House Hospitality Management Consulting Co., Ltd. (2739.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.10 - $31.45$24.59
Multi-Stage$40.31 - $44.32$42.27
Blended Fair Value$33.43
Current Price$38.65
Upside-13.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.001.211.211.212.662.791.76
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-54.55%-4.35%58.55%156.80%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.79%4.86%3.35%5.62%6.17%2.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.2219.5111.71
Cash Retained (M)64.5564.5564.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.22-19.51-11.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.3445.0452.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.0892.0892.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.490.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.990.990.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.490.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.481.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-0.77%0.23%1.23%
Fair Value$19.10$24.59$31.45
Upside / Downside-50.59%-36.39%-18.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.08156.43156.79157.15157.51157.87162.60
Payout Ratio58.64%64.91%71.18%77.46%83.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.53101.55111.61121.72131.88142.08150.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-0.77%0.23%1.23%
Year 1 PV (M)94.6095.5596.50
Year 2 PV (M)96.8698.82100.80
Year 3 PV (M)98.41101.41104.48
Year 4 PV (M)99.32103.39107.57
Year 5 PV (M)99.68104.81110.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,223.003,388.713,561.17
Equity Value (M)3,711.873,892.694,080.67
Shares Outstanding (M)92.0892.0892.08
Fair Value$40.31$42.27$44.32
Upside / Downside4.30%9.38%14.66%

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