Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Texhong Textile Group Limited (2678.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.79 - $21.41$17.31
Multi-Stage$30.92 - $34.11$32.48
Blended Fair Value$24.90
Current Price$3.54
Upside603.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.94%-9.71%0.090.000.830.570.140.330.370.430.250.16
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%45.27%320.84%-59.19%-9.73%-14.09%74.95%58.12%-38.21%
Dividend Yield--2.42%0.00%15.12%6.85%2.44%4.27%4.72%4.95%2.62%3.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,343.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,260.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)268.77167.98100.79
Cash Retained (M)1,260.391,260.391,260.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-268.77-167.98-100.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)991.621,092.411,159.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)918.00918.00918.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.081.191.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.081.191.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-1.99%-0.99%0.01%
Fair Value$13.79$17.31$21.41
Upside / Downside289.48%389.09%504.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,343.871,330.561,317.391,304.341,291.431,278.641,317.00
Payout Ratio6.21%22.97%39.73%56.48%73.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.47305.62523.36736.75945.871,150.781,218.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-1.99%-0.99%0.01%
Year 1 PV (M)284.51287.41290.31
Year 2 PV (M)453.55462.86472.25
Year 3 PV (M)594.39612.77631.52
Year 4 PV (M)710.39739.82770.17
Year 5 PV (M)804.58846.47890.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,540.2726,870.0728,254.70
Equity Value (M)28,387.6829,819.4031,309.05
Shares Outstanding (M)918.00918.00918.00
Fair Value$30.92$32.48$34.11
Upside / Downside773.54%817.60%863.44%

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