Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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EDA Group Holdings Limited (2505.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.36 - $3.64$2.96
Multi-Stage$5.14 - $5.66$5.40
Blended Fair Value$4.18
Current Price$2.37
Upside76.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.020.060.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---60.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.00%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.3713.358.01
Cash Retained (M)97.6397.6397.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.37-13.35-8.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.2684.2889.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)416.24416.24416.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.220.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.36$2.96$3.64
Upside / Downside-0.29%24.83%53.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.83105.76104.71103.66102.62101.60104.64
Payout Ratio8.61%24.89%41.17%57.44%73.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.2026.3243.1059.5575.6591.4496.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)24.4624.7124.96
Year 2 PV (M)37.2337.9938.76
Year 3 PV (M)47.8049.2750.78
Year 4 PV (M)56.4458.7861.19
Year 5 PV (M)63.3966.6970.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,909.152,008.572,112.08
Equity Value (M)2,138.472,246.012,357.90
Shares Outstanding (M)416.24416.24416.24
Fair Value$5.14$5.40$5.66
Upside / Downside116.78%127.68%139.02%

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