Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jean Co.,Ltd (2442.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.31 - $7.65$6.45
Multi-Stage$45.01 - $50.09$47.49
Blended Fair Value$26.97
Current Price$23.97
Upside12.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-25.30%12.48%0.100.050.180.090.040.450.000.010.030.02
YoY Growth--122.57%-74.11%103.81%111.54%-90.64%0.00%-100.00%-77.60%62.80%-36.74%
Dividend Yield--0.42%0.18%1.22%0.71%0.44%7.17%0.00%0.10%0.50%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)220.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)192.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.0727.5416.53
Cash Retained (M)192.17192.17192.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.07-27.54-16.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)148.10164.62175.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)272.13272.13272.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.600.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.600.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate2.54%2.54%2.54%
Growth Rate-8.61%-7.61%-6.61%
Fair Value$5.31$6.45$7.65
Upside / Downside-77.84%-73.09%-68.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)220.36203.59188.09173.77160.54148.32152.77
Payout Ratio12.79%28.23%43.68%59.12%74.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.1957.4882.15102.73119.70133.49141.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.54%2.54%2.54%
Growth Rate-8.61%-7.61%-6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)55.4556.0656.67
Year 2 PV (M)76.4578.1479.84
Year 3 PV (M)92.2395.2998.42
Year 4 PV (M)103.68108.29113.06
Year 5 PV (M)111.54117.78124.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,808.0712,468.4013,157.95
Equity Value (M)12,247.4312,923.9613,630.23
Shares Outstanding (M)272.13272.13272.13
Fair Value$45.01$47.49$50.09
Upside / Downside87.76%98.13%108.96%

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