Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Samsonite International S.A. (1910.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.79 - $40.61$38.05
Multi-Stage$19.64 - $21.61$20.61
Blended Fair Value$29.33
Current Price$1.86
Upside1,476.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.71%6.49%0.110.000.000.000.000.090.080.070.070.06
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%13.64%13.40%4.30%5.68%10.00%
Dividend Yield--4.47%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%9.28%2.38%1.51%1.81%1.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)299.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.9037.4422.46
Cash Retained (M)149.50149.50149.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.90-37.44-22.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.60112.06127.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,414.901,414.901,414.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate3.06%3.06%3.06%
Growth Rate1.71%2.71%3.71%
Fair Value$12.79$38.05$40.61
Upside / Downside587.86%1,945.62%2,083.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)299.50307.63315.98324.55333.36342.40352.68
Payout Ratio50.08%58.07%66.05%74.03%82.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150.00178.63208.70240.28273.41308.16326.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.06%3.06%3.06%
Growth Rate1.71%2.71%3.71%
Year 1 PV (M)171.64173.33175.01
Year 2 PV (M)192.69196.49200.34
Year 3 PV (M)213.15219.50225.98
Year 4 PV (M)233.05242.36251.93
Year 5 PV (M)252.40265.05278.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,719.1928,058.7229,451.44
Equity Value (M)27,782.1229,155.4530,582.91
Shares Outstanding (M)1,414.901,414.901,414.90
Fair Value$19.64$20.61$21.61
Upside / Downside955.67%1,007.85%1,062.09%

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