Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ho Tung Chemical Corp. (1714.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.98 - $6.17$5.00
Multi-Stage$9.20 - $10.13$9.65
Blended Fair Value$7.33
Current Price$7.94
Upside-7.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.64%0.00%0.300.100.420.710.000.150.310.000.000.00
YoY Growth--200.00%-76.20%-39.96%0.00%-100.00%-50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.59%1.15%4.72%6.75%0.00%2.50%4.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)423.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)201.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)222.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.7152.9431.76
Cash Retained (M)222.25222.25222.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.71-52.94-31.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)137.54169.30190.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)998.45998.45998.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.98$5.00$6.17
Upside / Downside-49.87%-37.07%-22.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)423.53419.30415.10410.95406.84402.77414.86
Payout Ratio47.53%56.02%64.52%73.01%81.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)201.29234.89267.81300.04331.60362.50383.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)218.63220.86223.09
Year 2 PV (M)232.00236.76241.57
Year 3 PV (M)241.93249.41257.04
Year 4 PV (M)248.86259.17269.80
Year 5 PV (M)253.21266.40280.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,990.948,407.058,840.32
Equity Value (M)9,185.579,639.6410,111.94
Shares Outstanding (M)998.45998.45998.45
Fair Value$9.20$9.65$10.13
Upside / Downside15.87%21.59%27.55%

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