Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Q Technology (Group) Company Limited (1478.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.94 - $7.58$6.17
Multi-Stage$10.52 - $11.59$11.05
Blended Fair Value$8.61
Current Price$7.57
Upside13.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.040.090.000.080.030.000.04
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-54.64%0.00%-100.00%146.66%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.50%0.81%0.00%1.98%0.34%0.00%2.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)648.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)108.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)539.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.7181.0748.64
Cash Retained (M)539.92539.92539.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.71-81.07-48.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)410.21458.85491.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,185.961,185.961,185.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.94$6.17$7.58
Upside / Downside-34.72%-18.47%0.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)648.54642.05635.63629.27622.98616.75635.25
Payout Ratio16.75%31.40%46.05%60.70%75.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)108.61201.59292.70381.96469.41555.08587.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)187.07188.98190.89
Year 2 PV (M)252.04257.21262.44
Year 3 PV (M)305.21314.65324.28
Year 4 PV (M)348.07362.50377.37
Year 5 PV (M)381.94401.83422.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,001.8111,574.7012,171.22
Equity Value (M)12,476.1513,099.8713,748.72
Shares Outstanding (M)1,185.961,185.961,185.96
Fair Value$10.52$11.05$11.59
Upside / Downside38.97%45.92%53.14%

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