Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited (1258.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.05 - $5.68$4.12
Multi-Stage$2.38 - $2.59$2.49
Blended Fair Value$3.30
Current Price$0.93
Upside255.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.70%32.44%0.030.030.040.020.000.010.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--9.90%-26.18%109.24%455.85%-58.01%36.90%0.00%-100.00%192.45%-63.95%
Dividend Yield--4.48%4.18%7.25%4.47%1.13%3.26%2.23%0.00%1.06%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)753.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)221.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)532.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)150.7594.2256.53
Cash Retained (M)532.42532.42532.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-150.75-94.22-56.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)381.66438.20475.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,837.913,837.913,837.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate10.94%10.94%10.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.05$4.12$5.68
Upside / Downside228.25%344.06%511.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)753.77802.77854.95910.52969.701,032.731,063.71
Payout Ratio29.37%41.49%53.62%65.75%77.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)221.35333.09458.42598.63755.14929.46983.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.94%10.94%10.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)297.43300.25303.06
Year 2 PV (M)365.51372.47379.50
Year 3 PV (M)426.20438.43450.90
Year 4 PV (M)480.06498.52517.51
Year 5 PV (M)527.61553.09579.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,034.887,374.677,727.46
Equity Value (M)9,131.689,537.439,957.98
Shares Outstanding (M)3,837.913,837.913,837.91
Fair Value$2.38$2.49$2.59
Upside / Downside156.29%167.68%179.48%

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