Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yum China Holdings Inc (0YU.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.35 - $127.85$75.95
Multi-Stage$55.43 - $60.78$58.05
Blended Fair Value$67.00
Current Price$59.43
Upside12.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.50%0.00%0.620.540.500.500.240.450.400.090.000.00
YoY Growth--14.81%6.93%-0.49%113.68%-47.51%12.42%323.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.13%0.99%0.79%1.18%0.39%1.06%1.02%0.22%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)919.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)302.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)617.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)183.80114.8868.93
Cash Retained (M)617.00617.00617.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-183.80-114.88-68.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)433.20502.13548.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.00403.00403.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.071.251.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.071.251.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.822.002.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate3.01%4.01%5.01%
Fair Value$50.35$75.95$127.85
Upside / Downside-15.28%27.80%115.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)919.00955.83994.141,033.981,075.421,118.521,152.07
Payout Ratio32.86%44.29%55.72%67.14%78.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)302.00423.33553.90694.26844.981,006.661,065.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate3.01%4.01%5.01%
Year 1 PV (M)392.79396.60400.41
Year 2 PV (M)476.86486.16495.55
Year 3 PV (M)554.57570.87587.50
Year 4 PV (M)626.26650.93676.33
Year 5 PV (M)692.26726.52762.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,593.7920,563.5221,571.27
Equity Value (M)22,336.5223,394.6124,493.19
Shares Outstanding (M)403.00403.00403.00
Fair Value$55.43$58.05$60.78
Upside / Downside-6.74%-2.32%2.27%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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