Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ABB Ltd (0NX2.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.37 - $40.69$32.30
Multi-Stage$50.44 - $55.47$52.91
Blended Fair Value$42.60
Current Price$71.97
Upside-40.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.10%-0.40%0.960.930.920.940.940.910.930.890.000.74
YoY Growth--3.27%0.88%-1.62%-0.58%3.64%-2.45%5.02%0.00%-100.00%-26.29%
Dividend Yield--1.88%2.03%2.70%2.87%3.12%5.16%4.90%3.73%0.00%3.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,445.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,914.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,530.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)889.03555.64333.38
Cash Retained (M)2,530.862,530.862,530.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-889.03-555.64-333.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,641.841,975.222,197.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,837.751,837.751,837.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.071.20
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.071.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.942.122.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-0.90%0.10%1.10%
Fair Value$25.37$32.30$40.69
Upside / Downside-64.75%-55.12%-43.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,445.134,449.494,453.854,458.214,462.584,466.964,600.96
Payout Ratio43.06%52.45%61.84%71.23%80.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,914.272,333.822,754.203,175.403,597.424,020.264,255.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-0.90%0.10%1.10%
Year 1 PV (M)2,166.292,188.152,210.01
Year 2 PV (M)2,372.972,421.112,469.72
Year 3 PV (M)2,539.482,617.132,696.36
Year 4 PV (M)2,670.462,779.892,892.65
Year 5 PV (M)2,770.122,912.733,061.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)80,180.8784,308.8888,605.18
Equity Value (M)92,700.1897,227.89101,935.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,837.751,837.751,837.75
Fair Value$50.44$52.91$55.47
Upside / Downside-29.91%-26.49%-22.93%

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