Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $8.75 - $12.55 | $10.61 |
| Multi-Stage | $14.05 - $15.45 | $14.73 |
| Blended Fair Value | $12.67 | |
| Current Price | $15.51 | |
| Upside | -18.30% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.52% | -9.39% | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 0.98 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 290.00% | 5.26% | -75.32% | 1.32% | 0.00% | -66.96% | -67.61% | 1.00% | 80.72% | 86.12% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.07% | 0.26% | 0.35% | 2.01% | 0.71% | 0.53% | 1.54% | 4.76% | 4.71% | 2.61% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 499.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 79.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 420.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 99.80 | 62.38 | 37.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 420.00 | 420.00 | 420.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -99.80 | -62.38 | -37.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 320.20 | 357.63 | 382.58 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 395.50 | 395.50 | 395.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.81 | 0.90 | 0.97 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.81 | 0.90 | 0.97 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.01 | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.18% | -1.18% | -0.18% |
| Fair Value | $8.75 | $10.61 | $12.55 |
| Upside / Downside | -43.58% | -31.59% | -19.08% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 499.00 | 493.09 | 487.25 | 481.48 | 475.78 | 470.15 | 484.25 |
| Payout Ratio | 15.83% | 30.67% | 45.50% | 60.33% | 75.17% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 79.00 | 151.21 | 221.69 | 290.49 | 357.63 | 423.13 | 447.93 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.18% | -1.18% | -0.18% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 137.20 | 138.60 | 140.00 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 182.51 | 186.26 | 190.05 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 216.99 | 223.71 | 230.57 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 242.38 | 252.44 | 262.82 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 260.20 | 273.77 | 287.91 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,517.05 | 4,752.71 | 4,998.11 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,556.32 | 5,827.50 | 6,109.46 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 395.50 | 395.50 | 395.50 |
| Fair Value | $14.05 | $14.73 | $15.45 |
| Upside / Downside | -9.42% | -5.00% | -0.40% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SO | The Southern Company | 3.09% | $2.69 | 67.01% |
| CFR | Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | 3.08% | $3.94 | 39.68% |
| CMS | CMS Energy Corporation | 3.08% | $2.17 | 62.27% |
| SJW | SJW Group | 3.08% | $1.60 | 52.08% |
| SNV | Synovus Financial Corp. | 3.08% | $1.54 | 27.05% |
| 0HCT.L | Alliant Energy Corporation | 3.07% | $1.99 | 62.84% |
| 0M3L.L | Zions Bancorporation, National Association | 3.07% | $1.79 | 31.01% |
| IVZ | Invesco Ltd. | 3.07% | $0.83 | 35.83% |
| SWX | Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | 3.07% | $2.46 | 38.44% |
| PEG | Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | 3.06% | $2.48 | 59.65% |
| CASS | Cass Information Systems, Inc. | 3.05% | $1.24 | 52.58% |
| CIVB | Civista Bancshares, Inc. | 3.05% | $0.67 | 25.26% |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 3.05% | $5.41 | 98.14% |
| CTRE | CareTrust REIT, Inc. | 3.04% | $1.10 | 89.62% |
| UCB | United Community Banks, Inc. | 3.04% | $0.95 | 36.76% |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants, Inc. | 3.03% | $5.68 | 60.69% |
| HMN | Horace Mann Educators Corporation | 3.02% | $1.36 | 34.55% |
| VG | Venture Global, Inc. | 3.02% | $0.21 | 24.09% |
| HFBL | Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana | 3.01% | $0.54 | 35.96% |
| TOWN | TowneBank | 3.01% | $1.00 | 45.24% |
| GBCI | Glacier Bancorp, Inc. | 3.00% | $1.34 | 64.06% |
| MBWM | Mercantile Bank Corporation | 3.00% | $1.43 | 27.14% |
| PPL | PPL Corporation | 3.00% | $1.05 | 71.70% |
| DTSQ | DT Cloud Star Acquisition Corporation | 2.99% | $0.32 | 87.02% |
| EBMT | Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. | 2.99% | $0.58 | 33.76% |
| INDB | Independent Bank Corp. | 2.99% | $2.19 | 35.86% |
| ESSA | ESSA Bancorp, Inc. | 2.98% | $0.61 | 39.75% |
| RDN | Radian Group Inc. | 2.98% | $1.07 | 25.60% |
| 0K0X.L | MetLife, Inc. | 2.96% | $2.36 | 41.08% |
| CUBB | Customers Bancorp, Inc 5.375% S | 2.96% | $0.66 | 12.54% |
| HBB | Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company | 2.96% | $0.47 | 20.02% |
| SD | SandRidge Energy, Inc. | 2.96% | $0.44 | 24.38% |
| STRW | Strawberry Fields REIT LLC | 2.95% | $0.38 | 70.76% |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | 2.94% | $3.23 | 32.02% |
| JWN | Nordstrom, Inc. | 2.94% | $0.73 | 42.03% |
| PKBK | Parke Bancorp, Inc. | 2.94% | $0.71 | 25.08% |
| 0JW2.L | M&T Bank Corporation | 2.93% | $5.91 | 33.38% |
| EIG | Employers Holdings, Inc. | 2.93% | $1.26 | 48.48% |
| MYE | Myers Industries, Inc. | 2.93% | $0.55 | 73.41% |
| RM | Regional Management Corp. | 2.93% | $1.15 | 28.16% |
| HSY | The Hershey Company | 2.92% | $5.33 | 79.75% |
| STZ | Constellation Brands, Inc. | 2.92% | $4.12 | 59.24% |
| AROC | Archrock, Inc. | 2.91% | $0.77 | 51.05% |
| JXN | Jackson Financial Inc. | 2.91% | $3.13 | 38.19% |
| OSPN | OneSpan Inc. | 2.91% | $0.36 | 23.87% |
| 0LC6.L | Sysco Corporation | 2.90% | $2.10 | 55.57% |
| EXE | Expand Energy Corporation | 2.89% | $3.17 | 87.89% |
| PG | The Procter & Gamble Company | 2.89% | $4.09 | 59.50% |
| RES | RPC, Inc. | 2.89% | $0.16 | 72.96% |
| 0M1R.L | Xcel Energy Inc. | 2.88% | $2.16 | 65.69% |