Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Celltrion Healthcare Co., Ltd. (091990.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,762.38 - $2,495.21$2,124.30
Multi-Stage$2,744.15 - $3,006.34$2,872.74
Blended Fair Value$2,498.52
Current Price$63,000.00
Upside-96.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%0.00%249.260.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43,133.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20,164.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,969.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,626.685,391.683,235.01
Cash Retained (M)22,969.1222,969.1222,969.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,626.68-5,391.68-3,235.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)14,342.4417,577.4419,734.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)159.90159.90159.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share89.70109.93123.42
LTM Dividend per Share126.11126.11126.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share89.70109.93123.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend215.80236.03249.52
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,762.38$2,124.30$2,495.21
Upside / Downside-97.20%-96.63%-96.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43,133.4242,702.0942,275.0741,852.3141,433.7941,019.4542,250.04
Payout Ratio46.75%55.40%64.05%72.70%81.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20,164.3023,656.5027,076.8430,426.4133,706.2836,917.5139,081.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21,288.6821,505.9121,723.14
Year 2 PV (M)21,927.7722,377.5522,831.91
Year 3 PV (M)22,174.0622,859.8123,559.55
Year 4 PV (M)22,105.6723,021.8423,966.21
Year 5 PV (M)21,788.3022,922.8724,104.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)329,504.82346,662.90364,528.42
Equity Value (M)438,789.29459,350.88480,713.44
Shares Outstanding (M)159.90159.90159.90
Fair Value$2,744.15$2,872.74$3,006.34
Upside / Downside-95.64%-95.44%-95.23%

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