Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Celltrion, Inc. (068270.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88,458.72 - $261,360.13$139,650.78
Multi-Stage$58,587.16 - $64,038.14$61,263.08
Blended Fair Value$100,456.93
Current Price$173,400.00
Upside-42.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%314.98%489.55244.12484.100.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--100.54%-49.57%2,709,526.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%944.20%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.14%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)737,835.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153,763.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)584,071.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)147,567.0792,229.4255,337.65
Cash Retained (M)584,071.86584,071.86584,071.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-147,567.07-92,229.42-55,337.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)436,504.79491,842.44528,734.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)211.63211.63211.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,062.572,324.052,498.37
LTM Dividend per Share726.56726.56726.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,062.572,324.052,498.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend2,789.133,050.613,224.93
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$88,458.72$139,650.78$261,360.13
Upside / Downside-48.99%-19.46%50.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)737,835.37785,794.67836,871.33891,267.96949,200.381,010,898.401,041,225.36
Payout Ratio20.84%34.67%48.50%62.34%76.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153,763.51272,449.55405,915.13555,580.13722,986.59909,808.56963,133.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)248,001.61250,352.34252,703.06
Year 2 PV (M)336,334.99342,741.23349,207.90
Year 3 PV (M)419,036.57431,065.60443,322.67
Year 4 PV (M)496,368.10515,457.02535,091.29
Year 5 PV (M)568,580.62596,043.28624,556.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,330,582.0010,829,552.9811,347,620.74
Equity Value (M)12,398,903.8912,965,212.4413,552,502.66
Shares Outstanding (M)211.63211.63211.63
Fair Value$58,587.16$61,263.08$64,038.14
Upside / Downside-66.21%-64.67%-63.07%

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