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Definitive Analysis

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KCTC Co. Ltd (009070.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57,690.81 - $137,983.66$129,310.90
Multi-Stage$19,909.28 - $21,809.75$20,841.99
Blended Fair Value$75,076.44
Current Price$5,300.00
Upside1,316.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.17%12.09%80.8260.4960.4550.3947.5145.5050.4135.3837.7934.15
YoY Growth--33.60%0.07%19.97%6.05%4.42%-9.74%42.48%-6.37%10.67%32.31%
Dividend Yield--2.30%1.55%1.42%0.80%0.74%2.31%1.39%1.34%1.16%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,749.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,646.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)18,103.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,149.992,593.741,556.24
Cash Retained (M)18,103.5418,103.5418,103.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,149.99-2,593.74-1,556.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,953.5615,509.8016,547.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29.9129.9129.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share466.57518.61553.30
LTM Dividend per Share88.4988.4988.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share466.57518.61553.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend555.06607.09641.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57,690.81$129,310.90$137,983.66
Upside / Downside988.51%2,339.83%2,503.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,749.9322,098.6823,535.0925,064.8726,694.0928,429.2129,282.08
Payout Ratio12.75%28.20%43.65%59.10%74.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,646.396,232.4910,273.5914,813.7119,900.6425,586.2927,085.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,796.335,851.275,906.22
Year 2 PV (M)8,886.009,055.259,226.10
Year 3 PV (M)11,916.2512,258.3312,606.88
Year 4 PV (M)14,887.9515,460.4916,049.40
Year 5 PV (M)17,801.9218,661.7619,554.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)536,133.51562,028.96588,915.49
Equity Value (M)595,421.96623,316.06652,258.59
Shares Outstanding (M)29.9129.9129.91
Fair Value$19,909.28$20,841.99$21,809.75
Upside / Downside275.65%293.25%311.50%

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