Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sino Land Company Limited (0083.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.37 - $14.63$11.80
Multi-Stage$21.90 - $24.14$22.99
Blended Fair Value$17.40
Current Price$8.35
Upside108.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.110.050.360.060.150.100.270.140.25
YoY Growth---100.00%128.99%-86.44%500.60%-60.52%56.50%-64.18%87.85%-42.27%0.20%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.37%0.50%3.07%0.48%1.54%0.71%2.09%1.11%1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,421.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,809.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,612.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,684.201,052.63631.58
Cash Retained (M)6,612.006,612.006,612.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,684.20-1,052.63-631.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,927.805,559.385,980.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,594.358,594.358,594.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.650.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.650.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.37$11.80$14.63
Upside / Downside12.26%41.28%75.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,421.008,336.798,253.428,170.898,089.188,008.298,248.54
Payout Ratio21.48%35.19%48.89%62.59%76.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,809.002,933.354,035.035,114.396,171.757,207.467,629.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,734.332,762.232,790.13
Year 2 PV (M)3,506.073,577.983,650.63
Year 3 PV (M)4,142.414,270.524,401.24
Year 4 PV (M)4,659.664,852.785,051.85
Year 5 PV (M)5,072.415,336.545,611.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)168,061.70176,813.06185,925.25
Equity Value (M)188,176.58197,613.12207,430.66
Shares Outstanding (M)8,594.358,594.358,594.35
Fair Value$21.90$22.99$24.14
Upside / Downside162.22%175.37%189.05%

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