DDM Analysis: 002971.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$14.83 - $67.73	$33.82
Multi-Stage	$10.42 - $11.40	$10.90
Blended Fair Value	$22.36
Current Price	$35.43
Upside	-36.90%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.05%	0.00%	0.23	0.12	0.17	0.23	0.08	0.08	0.16	0.08	0.06	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	98.57%	-32.53%	-26.13%	191.80%	-2.29%	-49.43%	110.86%	24.08%	-9.46%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.19%	0.55%	0.96%	1.43%	0.58%	0.51%	1.36%	0.65%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	72.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	69.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.42	9.01	5.41
Cash Retained (M)	2.60	2.60	2.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.42	-9.01	-5.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-11.82	-6.41	-2.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	209.51	209.51	209.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.33	0.33	0.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.28	0.30	0.32
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	4.42%	5.42%	6.42%
Fair Value	$14.83	$33.82	$67.73
Upside / Downside	-58.16%	-4.56%	91.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	72.08	75.98	80.10	84.43	89.01	93.83	96.64
Payout Ratio	96.40%	95.12%	93.84%	92.56%	91.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	69.48	72.27	75.16	78.15	81.25	84.45	89.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	4.42%	5.42%	6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)	67.31	67.95	68.60
Year 2 PV (M)	65.19	66.45	67.71
Year 3 PV (M)	63.13	64.96	66.83
Year 4 PV (M)	61.13	63.50	65.94
Year 5 PV (M)	59.17	62.06	65.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,867.41	1,958.56	2,053.24
Equity Value (M)	2,183.34	2,283.49	2,387.39
Shares Outstanding (M)	209.51	209.51	209.51
Fair Value	$10.42	$10.90	$11.40
Upside / Downside	-70.59%	-69.24%	-67.84%

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Hubei Heyuan Gas Co.,Ltd. (002971.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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