Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co., Ltd. (002821.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.61 - $189.61$107.31
Multi-Stage$47.29 - $51.67$49.44
Blended Fair Value$78.37
Current Price$113.70
Upside-31.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.32%46.00%1.801.860.610.410.320.260.230.170.100.06
YoY Growth---3.40%203.69%50.32%25.88%24.98%14.89%36.16%67.08%56.68%54.92%
Dividend Yield--2.28%2.14%0.46%0.16%0.16%0.21%0.34%0.30%0.21%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,038.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)250.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)788.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)207.77129.8677.92
Cash Retained (M)788.04788.04788.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-207.77-129.86-77.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)580.26658.18710.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)357.38357.38357.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.621.841.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.621.841.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.332.542.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$69.61$107.31$189.61
Upside / Downside-38.78%-5.62%66.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,038.871,106.401,178.311,254.901,336.471,423.341,466.04
Payout Ratio24.14%37.32%50.49%63.66%76.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)250.83412.86594.89798.851,026.801,281.011,356.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.02%9.02%9.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)375.13378.69382.24
Year 2 PV (M)491.13500.49509.93
Year 3 PV (M)599.24616.44633.97
Year 4 PV (M)699.84726.76754.44
Year 5 PV (M)793.32831.63871.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,940.0414,613.3515,312.43
Equity Value (M)16,898.7017,667.3518,464.42
Shares Outstanding (M)357.38357.38357.38
Fair Value$47.29$49.44$51.67
Upside / Downside-58.41%-56.52%-54.56%

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