Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Huangshan Capsule Co., Ltd. (002817.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.81 - $37.48$35.13
Multi-Stage$8.20 - $8.99$8.59
Blended Fair Value$21.86
Current Price$7.58
Upside188.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.37%8.90%0.080.060.060.040.030.020.030.040.040.04
YoY Growth--42.40%-9.27%83.09%31.72%11.89%-22.73%-15.38%-4.45%9.72%-1.88%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.84%0.77%0.38%0.43%0.37%0.51%0.47%0.23%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.557.224.33
Cash Retained (M)38.3338.3338.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.55-7.22-4.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.7831.1134.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)306.52306.52306.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate5.39%5.39%5.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.81$35.13$37.48
Upside / Downside319.71%363.41%394.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.7761.5365.5369.7874.3279.1581.53
Payout Ratio33.65%44.92%56.19%67.46%78.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.4427.6436.8247.0858.5171.2475.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.39%5.39%5.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.9826.2326.47
Year 2 PV (M)32.5333.1533.78
Year 3 PV (M)39.1040.2241.36
Year 4 PV (M)45.6847.4449.24
Year 5 PV (M)52.2754.8057.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,318.302,430.272,546.53
Equity Value (M)2,513.862,632.112,754.81
Shares Outstanding (M)306.52306.52306.52
Fair Value$8.20$8.59$8.99
Upside / Downside8.20%13.28%18.57%

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