Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Center Power Tech. Co., Ltd (002733.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.96 - $41.20$38.60
Multi-Stage$23.08 - $25.34$24.19
Blended Fair Value$31.40
Current Price$22.41
Upside40.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.47%7.97%0.240.160.130.180.350.260.220.190.170.14
YoY Growth--57.10%20.54%-30.27%-47.12%33.00%16.91%15.40%13.42%23.41%22.73%
Dividend Yield--1.45%1.07%0.69%1.24%2.32%1.30%0.90%1.41%0.89%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9510.596.36
Cash Retained (M)17.8717.8717.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.95-10.59-6.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.927.2711.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.60403.60403.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate1.98%1.98%1.98%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Fair Value$34.96$38.60$41.20
Upside / Downside55.99%72.25%83.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.7589.0393.5298.24103.21108.42111.67
Payout Ratio78.92%81.14%83.35%85.57%87.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.8872.2377.9584.0790.6097.57103.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.98%1.98%1.98%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)70.1670.8371.51
Year 2 PV (M)73.5474.9676.39
Year 3 PV (M)77.0279.2781.55
Year 4 PV (M)80.6283.7787.00
Year 5 PV (M)84.3488.4792.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,928.079,365.439,819.76
Equity Value (M)9,313.759,762.7210,228.97
Shares Outstanding (M)403.60403.60403.60
Fair Value$23.08$24.19$25.34
Upside / Downside2.98%7.94%13.09%

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