Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Shibao Company Limited (002703.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.47 - $9.85$6.43
Multi-Stage$3.25 - $3.55$3.40
Blended Fair Value$4.91
Current Price$14.05
Upside-65.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS51.67%-4.65%0.030.010.010.010.010.000.000.040.040.05
YoY Growth--234.34%49.02%9.27%4.99%40.43%107.15%-95.43%-0.84%-15.87%-2.12%
Dividend Yield--0.24%0.06%0.07%0.10%0.10%0.08%0.03%0.61%0.30%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)186.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)136.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.3623.3514.01
Cash Retained (M)136.90136.90136.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.36-23.35-14.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)99.53113.55122.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)822.78822.78822.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.79%9.79%9.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.47$6.43$9.85
Upside / Downside-68.22%-54.25%-29.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)186.82198.96211.89225.66240.33255.95263.63
Payout Ratio26.72%39.38%52.03%64.69%77.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.9278.34110.25145.98185.88230.36243.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.79%9.79%9.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70.6971.3672.03
Year 2 PV (M)89.7591.4693.19
Year 3 PV (M)107.22110.30113.44
Year 4 PV (M)123.19127.93132.80
Year 5 PV (M)137.74144.40151.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,147.032,250.732,358.40
Equity Value (M)2,675.622,796.172,921.16
Shares Outstanding (M)822.78822.78822.78
Fair Value$3.25$3.40$3.55
Upside / Downside-76.85%-75.81%-74.73%

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