Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited (0027.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.60 - $34.51$29.53
Multi-Stage$56.70 - $62.59$59.58
Blended Fair Value$44.56
Current Price$34.85
Upside27.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.36%-3.28%0.800.200.300.000.450.900.900.580.320.41
YoY Growth--300.12%-33.17%0.00%-100.00%-50.49%0.26%55.60%79.34%-21.22%-63.36%
Dividend Yield--2.42%0.46%0.58%0.00%0.74%1.57%1.80%0.96%0.95%1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,937.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,371.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,565.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,587.462,242.161,345.30
Cash Retained (M)13,565.7813,565.7813,565.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,587.46-2,242.16-1,345.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,978.3211,323.6112,220.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,376.524,376.524,376.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.282.592.79
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.282.592.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.283.593.79
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-5.28%-4.28%-3.28%
Fair Value$24.60$29.53$34.51
Upside / Downside-29.41%-15.27%-0.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,937.2817,169.9916,435.5215,732.4715,059.5014,415.3114,847.77
Payout Ratio24.37%37.50%50.62%63.75%76.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,371.516,438.218,320.0910,029.2011,576.8712,973.7813,734.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate-5.28%-4.28%-3.28%
Year 1 PV (M)5,934.885,997.546,060.19
Year 2 PV (M)7,070.057,220.127,371.76
Year 3 PV (M)7,856.118,107.568,364.32
Year 4 PV (M)8,359.488,718.129,088.18
Year 5 PV (M)8,635.789,101.369,586.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)210,279.14221,615.76233,436.13
Equity Value (M)248,135.45260,760.45273,907.38
Shares Outstanding (M)4,376.524,376.524,376.52
Fair Value$56.70$59.58$62.59
Upside / Downside62.69%70.97%79.59%

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