Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool Co., Ltd. (002559.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.41 - $22.98$7.95
Multi-Stage$3.82 - $4.18$3.99
Blended Fair Value$5.97
Current Price$11.25
Upside-46.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.25%5.95%0.140.150.150.150.050.200.120.120.100.08
YoY Growth---4.17%-0.03%0.00%207.02%-75.38%66.83%-0.23%18.89%24.43%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.42%1.39%1.85%2.22%0.85%3.42%2.02%2.12%1.12%0.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)75.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.049.405.64
Cash Retained (M)14.8114.8114.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.04-9.40-5.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.235.419.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)548.11548.11548.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.95%4.95%5.95%
Fair Value$4.41$7.95$22.98
Upside / Downside-60.76%-29.33%104.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)75.2278.9482.8686.9691.2795.7998.66
Payout Ratio80.31%82.25%84.19%86.12%88.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.4164.9369.7574.8980.3786.2191.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.95%4.95%5.95%
Year 1 PV (M)60.3760.9561.53
Year 2 PV (M)60.2961.4562.63
Year 3 PV (M)60.1861.9363.72
Year 4 PV (M)60.0462.3864.80
Year 5 PV (M)59.8762.8165.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,790.901,878.721,969.94
Equity Value (M)2,091.652,188.242,288.47
Shares Outstanding (M)548.11548.11548.11
Fair Value$3.82$3.99$4.18
Upside / Downside-66.08%-64.51%-62.89%

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