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Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing Xinlian Electronics Co., Ltd (002546.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.58 - $20.78$15.44
Multi-Stage$18.75 - $20.60$19.66
Blended Fair Value$17.55
Current Price$5.90
Upside197.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.10%4.04%0.120.120.120.120.010.120.120.010.090.10
YoY Growth--0.02%0.01%-0.06%764.67%-88.49%-2.09%807.19%-85.37%-2.77%18.16%
Dividend Yield--2.53%2.80%2.93%2.71%0.36%2.92%2.10%0.28%1.28%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)699.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)498.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.8187.3852.43
Cash Retained (M)498.48498.48498.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.81-87.38-52.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)358.67411.10446.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)834.19834.19834.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$11.58$15.44$20.78
Upside / Downside96.31%161.68%252.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)699.03711.77724.73737.94751.38765.07788.02
Payout Ratio28.69%40.95%53.21%65.48%77.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.56291.49385.66483.17584.11688.56728.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)270.61273.29275.98
Year 2 PV (M)332.39339.02345.71
Year 3 PV (M)386.61398.23410.07
Year 4 PV (M)433.89451.37469.36
Year 5 PV (M)474.85498.87523.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,744.4814,439.7615,162.90
Equity Value (M)15,642.8416,400.5417,187.88
Shares Outstanding (M)834.19834.19834.19
Fair Value$18.75$19.66$20.60
Upside / Downside217.83%233.23%249.23%

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