DDM Analysis: 002526.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.53 - $0.78	$0.65
Multi-Stage	$0.71 - $0.78	$0.75
Blended Fair Value	$0.70
Current Price	$3.83
Upside	-81.78%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	30.97%	-1.41%	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	432.79%	1,681.96%	-95.91%	-58.98%	142.08%	-56.04%	109.41%	-43.19%	-61.30%	11.30%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.72%	0.18%	0.01%	0.33%	0.84%	0.34%	0.55%	0.38%	0.39%	1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	113.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	111.96

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	22.71	14.19	8.52
Cash Retained (M)	111.96	111.96	111.96
(-) Cash Required (M)	-22.71	-14.19	-8.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	89.25	97.76	103.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,778.31	1,778.31	1,778.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.05	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.05	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.05	0.06	0.06
WACC / Discount Rate	9.50%	9.50%	9.50%
Growth Rate	-0.21%	0.79%	1.79%
Fair Value	$0.53	$0.65	$0.78
Upside / Downside	-86.29%	-83.11%	-79.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	113.55	114.45	115.36	116.27	117.19	118.12	121.66
Payout Ratio	1.41%	19.13%	36.84%	54.56%	72.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.60	21.89	42.50	63.44	84.71	106.31	112.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.50%	9.50%	9.50%
Growth Rate	-0.21%	0.79%	1.79%
Year 1 PV (M)	19.79	19.99	20.19
Year 2 PV (M)	34.75	35.45	36.16
Year 3 PV (M)	46.90	48.32	49.78
Year 4 PV (M)	56.62	58.93	61.30
Year 5 PV (M)	64.26	67.54	70.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,047.01	1,100.53	1,156.22
Equity Value (M)	1,269.34	1,330.77	1,394.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,778.31	1,778.31	1,778.31
Fair Value	$0.71	$0.75	$0.78
Upside / Downside	-81.36%	-80.46%	-79.52%

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Sector

Shandong Mining Machinery Group Co., Ltd (002526.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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