Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Jialong Food Co., Ltd. (002495.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.13 - $0.19$0.16
Multi-Stage$0.21 - $0.23$0.22
Blended Fair Value$0.19
Current Price$2.63
Upside-92.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.010.000.000.010.000.010.03
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-76.20%11.11%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.29%0.00%0.00%0.26%0.00%0.14%0.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.992.491.50
Cash Retained (M)12.6012.6012.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.99-2.49-1.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.6110.1111.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)928.29928.29928.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.58%-1.58%-0.58%
Fair Value$0.13$0.16$0.19
Upside / Downside-94.94%-93.93%-92.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.9419.6219.3119.0118.7018.4118.96
Payout Ratio36.82%47.45%58.09%68.73%79.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.349.3111.2213.0614.8416.5717.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.58%-1.58%-0.58%
Year 1 PV (M)8.388.478.55
Year 2 PV (M)9.089.279.46
Year 3 PV (M)9.529.8110.12
Year 4 PV (M)9.7310.1410.56
Year 5 PV (M)9.7810.2910.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)147.84155.59163.65
Equity Value (M)194.33203.56213.16
Shares Outstanding (M)928.29928.29928.29
Fair Value$0.21$0.22$0.23
Upside / Downside-92.04%-91.66%-91.27%

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