Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhuhai Winbase International Chemical Tank Terminal Co.,Ltd (002492.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.34 - $15.55$7.21
Multi-Stage$3.03 - $3.31$3.17
Blended Fair Value$5.19
Current Price$7.20
Upside-27.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.58%19.78%0.150.110.060.050.060.070.080.070.050.05
YoY Growth--43.26%71.03%30.55%-13.68%-18.62%-13.28%15.45%31.76%11.00%84.75%
Dividend Yield--3.02%2.12%0.96%0.77%1.07%1.35%1.21%1.06%1.00%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.447.784.67
Cash Retained (M)41.6541.6541.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.44-7.78-4.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.2033.8736.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)404.63404.63404.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.00%6.00%7.00%
Fair Value$4.34$7.21$15.55
Upside / Downside-39.78%0.09%115.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62.2165.9569.9074.1078.5483.2585.75
Payout Ratio33.06%44.45%55.83%67.22%78.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.5729.3139.0349.8161.7474.9379.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate5.00%6.00%7.00%
Year 1 PV (M)26.8927.1427.40
Year 2 PV (M)32.8533.4834.11
Year 3 PV (M)38.4639.5640.69
Year 4 PV (M)43.7345.4247.16
Year 5 PV (M)48.6851.0553.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,035.291,085.531,137.71
Equity Value (M)1,225.891,282.181,340.58
Shares Outstanding (M)404.63404.63404.63
Fair Value$3.03$3.17$3.31
Upside / Downside-57.92%-55.99%-53.98%

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