Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai Challenge Textile Co.,Ltd. (002486.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.60 - $0.92$0.75
Multi-Stage$0.73 - $0.80$0.76
Blended Fair Value$0.76
Current Price$2.72
Upside-72.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.15%-28.32%0.000.010.000.000.000.000.030.040.040.05
YoY Growth---88.28%300.45%-14.73%30.78%510.50%-98.09%-29.11%-8.34%-18.49%10.96%
Dividend Yield--0.08%0.58%0.11%0.13%0.10%0.01%0.64%0.84%0.49%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.826.764.06
Cash Retained (M)53.5253.5253.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.82-6.76-4.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.7146.7649.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)827.87827.87827.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate1.09%2.09%3.09%
Fair Value$0.60$0.75$0.92
Upside / Downside-77.88%-72.43%-66.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.0955.2256.3757.5458.7459.9761.77
Payout Ratio1.04%18.83%36.63%54.42%72.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.5610.4020.6531.3142.4253.9757.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate1.09%2.09%3.09%
Year 1 PV (M)9.379.479.56
Year 2 PV (M)16.7717.1017.44
Year 3 PV (M)22.9223.6124.31
Year 4 PV (M)27.9929.1130.27
Year 5 PV (M)32.1033.7235.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)494.82519.79545.75
Equity Value (M)603.98632.80662.73
Shares Outstanding (M)827.87827.87827.87
Fair Value$0.73$0.76$0.80
Upside / Downside-73.18%-71.90%-70.57%

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