Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co. Ltd. (002484.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.08 - $163.86$153.56
Multi-Stage$95.11 - $104.37$99.65
Blended Fair Value$126.61
Current Price$30.22
Upside318.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.15%21.63%0.270.160.130.130.080.080.080.080.040.05
YoY Growth--68.80%25.56%1.62%51.94%1.54%2.09%0.29%95.20%-8.65%16.81%
Dividend Yield--1.33%1.04%0.59%0.59%0.57%1.05%1.01%1.04%0.37%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)695.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)226.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)468.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.0386.8952.14
Cash Retained (M)468.99468.99468.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.03-86.89-52.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)329.96382.10416.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)843.67843.67843.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.450.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.450.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$139.08$153.56$163.86
Upside / Downside360.23%408.15%442.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)695.14740.32788.44839.69894.27952.40980.97
Payout Ratio32.53%44.03%55.52%67.01%78.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)226.15325.93437.74562.70702.06857.16907.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)315.93318.93321.92
Year 2 PV (M)411.29419.12427.03
Year 3 PV (M)512.48527.19542.18
Year 4 PV (M)619.78643.62668.13
Year 5 PV (M)733.49768.91805.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)77,647.6681,398.0785,292.02
Equity Value (M)80,240.6384,075.8588,056.99
Shares Outstanding (M)843.67843.67843.67
Fair Value$95.11$99.65$104.37
Upside / Downside214.72%229.76%245.38%

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