Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen MTC Co., Ltd. (002429.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.52 - $54.04$50.64
Multi-Stage$7.53 - $8.24$7.88
Blended Fair Value$29.26
Current Price$6.62
Upside342.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS53.26%39.54%0.140.100.040.050.030.020.020.030.050.05
YoY Growth--30.04%150.49%-11.78%87.52%56.93%-29.55%-21.09%-37.79%-1.58%872.20%
Dividend Yield--2.61%1.98%0.84%1.29%0.47%0.39%0.67%0.89%1.17%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,230.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)367.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)862.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)246.02153.7692.26
Cash Retained (M)862.53862.53862.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-246.02-153.76-92.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)616.51708.77770.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,527.074,527.074,527.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.52$50.64$54.04
Upside / Downside194.82%665.00%716.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,230.121,310.071,395.231,485.921,582.501,685.371,735.93
Payout Ratio29.88%41.91%53.93%65.95%77.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)367.58548.99752.43980.001,233.981,516.831,605.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)509.81514.64519.47
Year 2 PV (M)648.86661.22673.69
Year 3 PV (M)784.78807.31830.26
Year 4 PV (M)917.63952.92989.22
Year 5 PV (M)1,047.461,098.051,150.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,172.3531,629.6833,142.79
Equity Value (M)34,080.8835,663.8237,306.02
Shares Outstanding (M)4,527.074,527.074,527.07
Fair Value$7.53$7.88$8.24
Upside / Downside13.72%19.00%24.48%

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