Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Echom Sci.&Tech.Co.,Ltd (002420.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.17 - $1.75$1.45
Multi-Stage$9.15 - $10.17$9.65
Blended Fair Value$5.55
Current Price$8.66
Upside-35.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.41%-0.51%0.060.080.030.050.050.080.110.080.100.08
YoY Growth---19.67%159.34%-42.65%-4.13%-37.31%-24.98%36.68%-19.37%32.16%21.06%
Dividend Yield--0.92%1.53%0.42%0.81%1.18%2.34%2.61%1.75%1.14%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.237.644.59
Cash Retained (M)50.8250.8250.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.23-7.64-4.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.5943.1846.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.85403.85403.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate2.32%2.32%2.32%
Growth Rate-7.26%-6.26%-5.26%
Fair Value$1.17$1.45$1.75
Upside / Downside-86.45%-83.28%-79.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.1457.3253.7350.3747.2244.2745.59
Payout Ratio16.88%31.51%46.13%60.75%75.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.3218.0624.7930.6035.5939.8442.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.32%2.32%2.32%
Growth Rate-7.26%-6.26%-5.26%
Year 1 PV (M)17.4617.6517.84
Year 2 PV (M)23.1723.6724.18
Year 3 PV (M)27.6628.5729.49
Year 4 PV (M)31.1132.4733.88
Year 5 PV (M)33.6735.5237.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,564.093,760.423,965.31
Equity Value (M)3,697.163,898.304,108.16
Shares Outstanding (M)403.85403.85403.85
Fair Value$9.15$9.65$10.17
Upside / Downside5.71%11.46%17.46%

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