DDM Analysis: 002412.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.97 - $4.46	$3.67
Multi-Stage	$3.77 - $4.14	$3.95
Blended Fair Value	$3.81
Current Price	$6.36
Upside	-40.03%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-23.37%	-28.59%	0.01	0.31	0.01	0.01	0.09	0.02	0.03	0.32	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-98.35%	3,697.93%	-38.13%	-85.50%	369.99%	-28.15%	-91.73%	7,023.84%	37.59%	-97.76%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.08%	5.52%	0.13%	0.17%	1.56%	0.24%	0.25%	3.35%	0.04%	0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	172.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)	170.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	34.40	21.50	12.90
Cash Retained (M)	170.39	170.39	170.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-34.40	-21.50	-12.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	135.99	148.89	157.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	502.79	502.79	502.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.30	0.31
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.30	0.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.30	0.32
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	0.51%	1.51%	2.51%
Fair Value	$2.97	$3.67	$4.46
Upside / Downside	-53.34%	-42.22%	-29.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	172.02	174.61	177.24	179.91	182.62	185.38	190.94
Payout Ratio	0.94%	18.76%	36.57%	54.38%	72.19%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.63	32.75	64.81	97.83	131.83	166.84	176.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	0.51%	1.51%	2.51%
Year 1 PV (M)	29.54	29.83	30.13
Year 2 PV (M)	52.73	53.78	54.85
Year 3 PV (M)	71.79	73.95	76.16
Year 4 PV (M)	87.26	90.78	94.41
Year 5 PV (M)	99.60	104.65	109.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,555.90	1,634.86	1,716.99
Equity Value (M)	1,896.81	1,987.86	2,082.44
Shares Outstanding (M)	502.79	502.79	502.79
Fair Value	$3.77	$3.95	$4.14
Upside / Downside	-40.68%	-37.84%	-34.88%

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Sector

Hunan Hansen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002412.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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