Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Aerospace CH UAV Co.,Ltd (002389.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.84 - $1.30$1.05
Multi-Stage$1.13 - $1.24$1.18
Blended Fair Value$1.12
Current Price$23.11
Upside-95.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.59%3.20%0.070.070.070.040.040.050.040.010.020.03
YoY Growth---1.80%-6.61%68.10%-0.35%-10.42%14.01%483.37%-64.39%-32.33%-37.88%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.40%0.32%0.23%0.21%0.43%0.29%0.04%0.09%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)67.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.6111.016.61
Cash Retained (M)20.6020.6020.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.61-11.01-6.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.989.5913.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)981.20981.20981.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate1.20%2.20%3.20%
Fair Value$0.84$1.05$1.30
Upside / Downside-96.35%-95.44%-94.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88.0790.0191.9994.0196.0798.18101.13
Payout Ratio76.61%79.29%81.97%84.64%87.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)67.4771.3775.4079.5783.8988.3793.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate1.20%2.20%3.20%
Year 1 PV (M)64.3664.9965.63
Year 2 PV (M)61.3162.5363.76
Year 3 PV (M)58.3560.1061.88
Year 4 PV (M)55.4857.7059.99
Year 5 PV (M)52.6955.3558.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)819.28860.57903.50
Equity Value (M)1,111.471,161.241,212.87
Shares Outstanding (M)981.20981.20981.20
Fair Value$1.13$1.18$1.24
Upside / Downside-95.10%-94.88%-94.65%

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