Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.,Ltd (002375.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.21 - $1.66$1.44
Multi-Stage$3.70 - $4.10$3.90
Blended Fair Value$2.67
Current Price$3.80
Upside-29.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.90%-6.05%0.060.070.080.090.100.130.100.110.110.12
YoY Growth---10.18%-19.20%-6.63%-10.06%-22.36%30.55%-8.90%-1.54%-12.71%10.80%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.68%1.71%1.53%1.13%1.82%1.40%1.56%0.97%0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)314.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)188.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.9639.3523.61
Cash Retained (M)188.95188.95188.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.96-39.35-23.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)125.98149.59165.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,319.271,319.271,319.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-8.05%-7.05%-6.05%
Fair Value$1.21$1.44$1.66
Upside / Downside-68.12%-62.14%-56.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)314.82292.63272.01252.84235.02218.46225.01
Payout Ratio39.98%49.99%59.99%69.99%80.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.87146.28163.18176.97188.01196.61208.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-8.05%-7.05%-6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)135.94137.42138.90
Year 2 PV (M)140.93144.02147.13
Year 3 PV (M)142.05146.73151.52
Year 4 PV (M)140.25146.45152.85
Year 5 PV (M)136.30143.88151.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,188.944,421.724,664.74
Equity Value (M)4,884.415,140.225,406.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,319.271,319.271,319.27
Fair Value$3.70$3.90$4.10
Upside / Downside-2.57%2.53%7.85%

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