Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Yatai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002370.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.98 - $3.21$2.53
Multi-Stage$5.73 - $6.32$6.02
Blended Fair Value$4.27
Current Price$5.67
Upside-24.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.00%11.30%0.020.020.020.020.020.040.070.040.030.03
YoY Growth---27.86%18.83%4.06%-11.11%-44.05%-50.00%100.00%31.49%0.00%400.00%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.63%0.41%0.27%0.50%0.75%0.40%0.19%0.18%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9816.8610.12
Cash Retained (M)97.5297.5297.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.98-16.86-10.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)70.5480.6687.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)727.51727.51727.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate5.34%5.34%5.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.98$2.53$3.21
Upside / Downside-65.09%-55.35%-43.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.89133.55132.21130.89129.58128.28132.13
Payout Ratio27.70%40.16%52.62%65.08%77.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.3753.6469.5785.18100.48115.45122.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.34%5.34%5.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)50.4050.9251.43
Year 2 PV (M)61.4362.6963.97
Year 3 PV (M)70.6872.8775.10
Year 4 PV (M)78.3481.5984.93
Year 5 PV (M)84.5988.9993.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,820.434,019.364,226.50
Equity Value (M)4,165.874,376.424,595.51
Shares Outstanding (M)727.51727.51727.51
Fair Value$5.73$6.02$6.32
Upside / Downside0.99%6.10%11.41%

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