Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Longji Machinery Co.,Ltd (002363.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.43 - $23.05$21.60
Multi-Stage$3.48 - $3.81$3.64
Blended Fair Value$12.62
Current Price$7.73
Upside63.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.68%14.23%0.130.120.190.190.420.020.020.020.020.03
YoY Growth--5.00%-35.33%0.00%-55.06%2,125.00%0.00%7.83%0.00%-48.34%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.64%1.61%2.45%3.10%7.40%0.21%0.27%0.24%0.15%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.346.463.88
Cash Retained (M)4.274.274.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.34-6.46-3.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.07-2.190.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)445.91445.91445.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.43$21.60$23.05
Upside / Downside22.00%179.48%198.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.6955.0558.6362.4466.5070.8272.94
Payout Ratio91.74%91.39%91.04%90.69%90.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.4250.3153.3756.6360.0863.7467.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)46.7847.2247.66
Year 2 PV (M)46.1547.0347.91
Year 3 PV (M)45.5246.8348.16
Year 4 PV (M)44.9146.6348.41
Year 5 PV (M)44.3046.4448.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,325.691,389.721,456.20
Equity Value (M)1,553.341,623.871,697.01
Shares Outstanding (M)445.91445.91445.91
Fair Value$3.48$3.64$3.81
Upside / Downside-54.94%-52.89%-50.77%

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