Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Kehua Data Co., Ltd. (002335.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.21 - $176.87$165.75
Multi-Stage$26.27 - $28.78$27.50
Blended Fair Value$96.63
Current Price$71.50
Upside35.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-27.12%7.79%0.170.150.260.510.580.830.740.290.250.09
YoY Growth--10.08%-41.55%-47.90%-11.86%-30.39%12.45%158.00%14.18%163.94%17.74%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.49%0.56%1.98%2.99%6.42%6.30%1.75%1.20%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)421.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)359.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.3252.7031.62
Cash Retained (M)359.35359.35359.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.32-52.70-31.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)275.03306.65327.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)474.06474.06474.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.650.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.650.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.21$165.75$176.87
Upside / Downside13.58%131.82%147.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)421.61449.01478.20509.28542.39577.64594.97
Payout Ratio14.77%29.81%44.86%59.91%74.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.26133.87214.52305.09406.54519.88550.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)124.61125.79126.97
Year 2 PV (M)185.86189.40192.98
Year 3 PV (M)246.05253.11260.31
Year 4 PV (M)305.17316.91328.98
Year 5 PV (M)363.25380.80399.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,229.8011,772.2012,335.36
Equity Value (M)12,454.7413,038.2113,643.61
Shares Outstanding (M)474.06474.06474.06
Fair Value$26.27$27.50$28.78
Upside / Downside-63.26%-61.53%-59.75%

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