Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ZYF Lopsking Aluminum Co., Ltd. (002333.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.94 - $14.40$12.26
Multi-Stage$6.64 - $7.30$6.96
Blended Fair Value$9.61
Current Price$5.37
Upside78.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.93%-2.31%0.060.020.010.010.000.150.000.070.070.11
YoY Growth--140.16%148.50%36.16%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-33.33%50.00%
Dividend Yield--1.08%0.38%0.17%0.12%0.00%3.52%0.00%0.50%0.40%1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.076.293.78
Cash Retained (M)30.4930.4930.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.07-6.29-3.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.4224.1926.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)675.59675.59675.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate4.03%4.03%4.03%
Growth Rate2.48%3.48%4.48%
Fair Value$3.94$12.26$14.40
Upside / Downside-26.63%128.22%168.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50.3452.0953.9055.7857.7259.7361.52
Payout Ratio39.44%49.55%59.66%69.77%79.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.8525.8132.1638.9246.1153.7556.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.03%4.03%4.03%
Growth Rate2.48%3.48%4.48%
Year 1 PV (M)24.5724.8125.05
Year 2 PV (M)29.1429.7130.29
Year 3 PV (M)33.5734.5735.58
Year 4 PV (M)37.8739.3740.91
Year 5 PV (M)42.0344.1246.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,315.484,530.194,753.35
Equity Value (M)4,482.664,702.764,931.47
Shares Outstanding (M)675.59675.59675.59
Fair Value$6.64$6.96$7.30
Upside / Downside23.56%29.63%35.93%

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