Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guangdong JingYi Metal CO.,Ltd (002295.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.24 - $0.32$0.28
Multi-Stage$0.70 - $0.77$0.73
Blended Fair Value$0.51
Current Price$14.75
Upside-96.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.66%0.24%0.120.050.000.120.170.160.280.070.040.13
YoY Growth--113.33%2,653.79%-98.35%-29.46%3.76%-41.16%276.57%88.66%-70.43%16.95%
Dividend Yield--1.56%0.76%0.03%1.73%2.67%2.61%2.66%0.81%0.27%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.441.520.91
Cash Retained (M)2.262.262.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.44-1.52-0.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.170.741.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)254.05254.05254.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate-8.04%-7.04%-6.04%
Fair Value$0.24$0.28$0.32
Upside / Downside-98.39%-98.10%-97.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12.1811.3210.529.789.098.458.71
Payout Ratio81.43%83.14%84.86%86.57%88.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.919.418.938.478.037.618.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate-8.04%-7.04%-6.04%
Year 1 PV (M)8.718.818.90
Year 2 PV (M)7.657.827.99
Year 3 PV (M)6.726.947.17
Year 4 PV (M)5.906.166.43
Year 5 PV (M)5.185.475.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)142.78150.71158.99
Equity Value (M)176.94185.91195.25
Shares Outstanding (M)254.05254.05254.05
Fair Value$0.70$0.73$0.77
Upside / Downside-95.28%-95.04%-94.79%

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