Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002262.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$99.58 - $242.35$227.11
Multi-Stage$35.19 - $38.53$36.83
Blended Fair Value$131.97
Current Price$27.20
Upside385.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.23%33.49%0.320.200.200.100.100.080.060.050.040.02
YoY Growth--60.67%0.00%100.00%-1.13%32.13%20.56%37.82%13.92%72.75%30.91%
Dividend Yield--1.44%0.90%0.76%0.80%0.68%0.67%0.48%0.31%0.29%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,229.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)367.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)862.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.90153.6992.21
Cash Retained (M)862.25862.25862.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.90-153.69-92.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)616.35708.56770.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,008.961,008.961,008.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.700.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.700.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$99.58$227.11$242.35
Upside / Downside266.11%734.98%790.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,229.501,309.421,394.531,485.181,581.721,684.531,735.06
Payout Ratio29.87%41.90%53.92%65.95%77.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)367.26548.60751.96979.451,233.331,516.081,604.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)510.12514.96519.79
Year 2 PV (M)650.18662.57675.07
Year 3 PV (M)787.48810.09833.12
Year 4 PV (M)922.05957.51993.99
Year 5 PV (M)1,053.951,104.851,157.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,581.6433,107.0534,690.83
Equity Value (M)35,505.4337,157.0238,870.51
Shares Outstanding (M)1,008.961,008.961,008.96
Fair Value$35.19$36.83$38.53
Upside / Downside29.38%35.39%41.64%

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