Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Goldwind Science&Technology Co., Ltd. (002202.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.18 - $124.51$116.68
Multi-Stage$18.09 - $19.80$18.93
Blended Fair Value$67.81
Current Price$14.97
Upside352.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.58%7.49%0.420.460.630.580.410.530.440.340.470.42
YoY Growth---8.16%-27.40%8.18%41.48%-22.48%18.93%32.71%-28.27%10.97%107.11%
Dividend Yield--4.71%5.95%5.69%4.42%2.90%5.57%3.05%2.03%4.16%3.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,652.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)913.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,739.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)530.54331.59198.95
Cash Retained (M)1,739.151,739.151,739.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-530.54-331.59-198.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,208.611,407.561,540.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,236.684,236.684,236.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Fair Value$50.18$116.68$124.51
Upside / Downside235.19%679.43%731.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,652.712,824.783,008.013,203.133,410.903,632.153,741.12
Payout Ratio34.44%45.55%56.66%67.78%78.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)913.561,286.721,704.442,170.942,690.783,268.943,460.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Year 1 PV (M)1,196.391,207.731,219.08
Year 2 PV (M)1,473.551,501.621,529.95
Year 3 PV (M)1,745.101,795.201,846.26
Year 4 PV (M)2,011.152,088.502,168.06
Year 5 PV (M)2,271.762,381.502,495.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,942.9571,225.0574,632.77
Equity Value (M)76,640.9080,199.6083,891.56
Shares Outstanding (M)4,236.684,236.684,236.68
Fair Value$18.09$18.93$19.80
Upside / Downside20.84%26.45%32.27%

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